Assignment 3
Introduction
The
objective of this project was to investigate foreclosures in Dane County, WI in
2011 and 2012. Though the data did not provide specific reasons for the foreclosures, they could still be analyzed spatially. Patterns could be determined by looking at how each tract changed in number of foreclosures from 2011 to 2012. By understanding the foreclosure data distribution for the year of 2012, probabilities could then be used to estimate what the distribution would likely be for 2013.
Methodology
Definitions:
Z-score - the number of standard deviations a particular observation is away from the mean.
Probability - the chance (in ration form) that an outcome will occur.
The z-scores were taken from 3 census tracts in Dane County for both 2011 and 2012 to look at changes in those specific counties. The first step in mapping the changes was to add a field that shows the change between 2011 and 2012. The field calculator was used to calculate the difference between numbers of foreclosures for the two years. This field was then mapped to display the results: which tracts increased in number of foreclosures and which tracts had a decrease in number of foreclosures, and by how much did each tract increase or decrease.
Next, the probability of what would likely occur in 2013 was determined by using the z-score equation with the 2012 data. A z-score chart was used to find what number of foreclosures would be exceeded 70% of the time and 20% of the time in 2013.
Another way to estimate the number of foreclosures in 2013 would be to look at the total number (sum) of foreclosures of the years 2011 and 2012, and however it changed for those years could be applied to how it might change for 2013.
Definitions:
Z-score - the number of standard deviations a particular observation is away from the mean.
Probability - the chance (in ration form) that an outcome will occur.
The z-scores were taken from 3 census tracts in Dane County for both 2011 and 2012 to look at changes in those specific counties. The first step in mapping the changes was to add a field that shows the change between 2011 and 2012. The field calculator was used to calculate the difference between numbers of foreclosures for the two years. This field was then mapped to display the results: which tracts increased in number of foreclosures and which tracts had a decrease in number of foreclosures, and by how much did each tract increase or decrease.
Next, the probability of what would likely occur in 2013 was determined by using the z-score equation with the 2012 data. A z-score chart was used to find what number of foreclosures would be exceeded 70% of the time and 20% of the time in 2013.
Another way to estimate the number of foreclosures in 2013 would be to look at the total number (sum) of foreclosures of the years 2011 and 2012, and however it changed for those years could be applied to how it might change for 2013.
Results
By looking at Figure 1, it can be seen which tracts had an increase or decrease in number of foreclosures. With the city of Madison being the centrally concentrated area of Dane County, it can be observed that that area generally didn't have drastic changes in the number of foreclosures from 2011 to 2012. Some very large tracts on the East and West of Madison had large increases in foreclosures, and a couple very large tracts on the East and North edges of Madison showed large decreases in foreclosures.
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| Figure 1 |
In 2013 the number of foreclosures that would be exceeded by 70% is 7.1477. The number of foreclosures that would be exceeded by 20% is 20.6203. What these probabilities mean is that 70% of the tracts in Dane County would have more than 7 foreclosures, and 20% of the tracts would have more than 20 foreclosures.
By also taking the total number of foreclosures in 2012 and subtracting the total number of foreclosures in 2012, it can be observed that the total increased by 997 in 2012. If this increase trend continued to 2013, that year would see 2313 total foreclosures in Dane County.
Conclusion
2012 saw an increase in total number of foreclosures, and if that trend continues 2013 will see another increase in foreclosures for Dane County. It was also observed that 80% of tracts in the county will have 20 or less foreclosures, and 30% will have 7 foreclosures or less. By using the map in Figure 1, the tracts that had large increases in the number of foreclosures could be targeted in focusing resources to try to reduce the number of foreclosures, or at least search for possible causes of the increases. The tracts that showed large decreases in number of foreclosures could be studied to try to find reasons for the decrease so that could be applied to areas that had large increases. The results from this county could also be compared to other counties in Wisconsin to see where this county lies in regards to the rest of the state.
By also taking the total number of foreclosures in 2012 and subtracting the total number of foreclosures in 2012, it can be observed that the total increased by 997 in 2012. If this increase trend continued to 2013, that year would see 2313 total foreclosures in Dane County.
Conclusion
2012 saw an increase in total number of foreclosures, and if that trend continues 2013 will see another increase in foreclosures for Dane County. It was also observed that 80% of tracts in the county will have 20 or less foreclosures, and 30% will have 7 foreclosures or less. By using the map in Figure 1, the tracts that had large increases in the number of foreclosures could be targeted in focusing resources to try to reduce the number of foreclosures, or at least search for possible causes of the increases. The tracts that showed large decreases in number of foreclosures could be studied to try to find reasons for the decrease so that could be applied to areas that had large increases. The results from this county could also be compared to other counties in Wisconsin to see where this county lies in regards to the rest of the state.
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